Can Mohamed ElBaradei Save Egypt?

The 2011 presidential election in Egypt is scheduled to take place roughly a year from now. But in Egypt, "election" is something of a relative term. Certainly, the last Egyptian presidential election, held in September of 2005, was a complete farce. President Hosni Mubarak, who has effectively ruled Egypt as a dictator since 1981, was "reelected" with a whopping 88.6% of the vote. International election observers were barred from overseeing the election, the government held complete control of the media, and reports of vote-buying, intimidation, and police breakups of peaceful protests were rampant.

One can judge whether or not the 2005 Egyptian election met democratic standards by looking at what happened to Ayman Nour of the el-Ghad, the leading opposition candidate. About nine months before the election, Nour was arrested and thrown in prison. Released two months later due to American pressure, he was registered by election authorities (controlled by Mubarak) as receiving only 7.3% of the vote. Immediately after the election was over, Ayman Nour was unceremoniously thrown back in prison.

President Mubarak, increasingly infirm at the age of 82, is unlikely to run for another term in next year's elections. Instead, in good dictatorial tradition, he is grooming his son, Gamal Mubarak, to run for president in his place. It's quite clear that, if Hosni Mubarak has his way, the 2011 election will be no different than the 2005 election, and his son will be "elected" by an overwhelming majority.

But Mubarak's plans for a family dynasty in Egypt may be upset by Mohamed ElBaradei, the Egyptian who lead the International Atomic Energy Agency between 1997 and 2009. He came into the global spotlight during the lead up to the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, when he directed weapons inspectors in Iraq and concluded that no Iraqi nuclear weapons program existed (he was right, but the Bush administration went forward with the invasion anyway). He has been equally outspoken in calling for negotiations with Iran rather than military action against it, believing that Iran is not an immediate nuclear danger but also that it has not been completely cooperative with the IAEA.

He has been an outstanding leader in the struggle against nuclear proliferation, calling for strong and legally binding inspections of nuclear facilities of all nations, ratification of nuclear reduction and test ban treaties, and an end to the production of fissable materials that might be used for nuclear weapons. For his efforts against nuclear proliferation, he was awarded the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize.

ElBaradei retired from the IAEA in 2009, and has now turned his attention to his homeland of Egypt. Since his return, there has been much speculation about whether or not he will run for president himself in 2011. He has not yet announced any candidacy, but he has held meetings with reformists and opposition figures, forming a pro-reform organization known as National Association for Change. It is not technically a political party, but clearly it has the potential to become one.

The National Association for Change is calling for strong international monitoring of the Egyptian elections, equal media time for all candidates, a limit of presidential tenure to two-terms, allowing Egyptians overseas to vote, and many other urgently-needed reforms. If these changes took place, Egypt would move a long way forward on the road towards becoming a democracy.

ElBaradei present a great problem for Mubarak. Since ElBaradei is a well-respected figure of global stature (they don't hand out the Nobel Peace Prize on street corners, after all), Mubarak cannot simply toss him into prison as he did Ayman Nour. The American government might have let him off with a few gentle protests back in 2005, when the person in question was virtually unknown outside of Egypt. If Mubarak arrested ElBaradei, the result would be a global firestorm, certainly a denunciation by the U.N. Security Council, and very likely a termination of the foreign economic and military aid that keeps Egypt propped up. But neither can Mubarak simply ignore ElBaradei, whose popularity both in Egypt and internationally is simply too great. Thus far, Mubarak has responded by unleashing a vicious smear campaign in the Egyptian press against ElBaradei, including disgraceful insinuations about his family.

Global Citizens can hope that ElBaradei's movement for political reform in Egypt continues to gather momentum. Egypt is not only home to one of the world's great ancient civilizations, but one of the centers of the Arab and Muslim world. Unlike most of its fellow Arab states, Egypt is at peace with Israel and enjoy full diplomatic relations with it. Egypt also has an increasingly sophisticated and growing economy, as well as abundant natural resources.

It may well be that the main problem holding Egypt back is its lack of proper political freedoms. If the Mubarak dictatorship were to be ended, Egypt could take its place as one of the great nations of the world, and would shine as a home-grown example to what the Arab people are capable of.

Is Mohamed ElBaradei the man to do it? We'll see.