Having brought the New START ratification debate to a successful conclusion, the advocates of nuclear disarmament have won a major victory. The treaty will reduce the deployed nuclear weapons of both Russia and the United States by 30% and implement a badly-needed verification and inspection system to make sure that both sides fulfill their treaty obligations. It's a major step forward, and the people who worked hard to make this agreement a reality (especially President Obama, Senator Kerry and Senator Lugar) deserve hearty congratulations.
But New START is merely a single step forward. We are nowhere near to crossing the finishing line in the campaign for nuclear disarmament. Now that New START is ratified, what are the next steps? Two immediate steps are obvious: the United States and Russia should immediately begin negotiations for a follow-on agreement to build on the momentum of success of New START, and the United States should ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
As good a treaty as New START was, there were many areas of nuclear policy which it did not cover. One was the issue of tactical nuclear weapons (New START covered only strategic weapons). Russia has more tactical nuclear weapons than does the United States, but a very large number are deployed along the Russian border with China. The United States still holds a large stockpile, including some which are deployed at air bases in Europe. The two sides need to come to an agreement on tactical nuclear weapons similar to the one they just concluded on strategic nuclear weapons, and America should be willing to offer a withdrawal of their tactical weapons from Europe as a carrot to obtain significant Russian reductions if that's what it takes.
Another issue not covered by New START which should be included in any new bilateral agreement between the United States and Russia is the need to end the "launch-on-warning" posture of nuclear weapons, in which the strategic missile forces at primed and ready to be launched at a moment's notice. This raises the disturbing and all-too-real prospect of nuclear weapons being launched by accident, as has nearly happened many times since the beginning of the nuclear age. The two nations should agree to store nuclear warheads in a separate facility from their missiles, rather than having the missiles armed at all times. Similarly, bomber aircraft should not be pre-armed with their nuclear bombs. These measures are urgently needed in order to minimize the dangers of an accidently nuclear war.
In addition to negotiating a follow-up agreement on New START with the Russians, the United States should also ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which requires signatories to refrain from test detonations of nuclear weapons under any and all circumstances. Signing the treaty will do much to restore America's credibility on the issue, since it is the height of hypocrisy for America to pressure nations like India and Pakistan to refrain from nuclear testing when it refuses to adhere to the CTBT itself. Besides, advances in computer technology mean that such tests are no longer necessary. The United States has not tested a nuclear weapon since the early 1990s. There are no valid reasons for the United States not to ratify the CTBT, and many reasons for it to do so.
After a follow-up Russian-American treaty has been concluded and the United States has ratified the CTBT, the international community will be in good position to make real progress on nuclear reductions. Russia and the United States, which together control more than 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, will have earned a good deal of credibility and political capital through their efforts, which would make it much easier to push through additional international agreements that will include the rest of the world's nuclear powers.
Eventually, there will have to be a strict and binding international agreement to strengthen the International Atomic Energy Agency in order to firmly secure all nuclear fissable material. Any such agreement must require all states to submit to international inspections.
Finally, as a purely symbolic measure, it would be lovely to see the United Nations General Assembly pass a resolution calling for the dismantling of all nuclear weapons on Earth by July 16, 2045, the 100th anniversary of the first test detonation of a nuclear weapon. It is nice to speculate that, a century into the nuclear age, the human race might have gained the wisdom to do away with nuclear weapons entirely.
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