China Passes Japan to Become the World's Second-Largest Economy

According to several media sources, recently-released economic data indicate that a long-predicted event has finally taken place: China has passed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. Considering that Japan's economic growth has recently slowed to a crawl once again, while China has continued to rocket upwards at an astounded rate, this is no surprise. It does, however, raise several interesting questions.

If current trends continue (always a tricky prediction), China is on course to surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy sometime around 2030. From a symbolic point of view, this would be highly significant, vindicating those historians and observers of current events who like to think of the 20th Century as having been "The American Century" and the 21st Century as being "The Chinese Century". History can't really be put into neat little packages like that, but no objective person can deny that, at least in economic terms, Chinese power is waxing and American power is waning.

For a long time, it was hoped and expected that economic growth in China would eventually lead to political liberalization as well. This, unfortunately, has yet to occur. The Chinese Communist Party seems as firmly rooted in power as ever, the massive Internet firewall remains in place, and the press controls briefly lifted for the 2008 Beijing Olympics are as well-established as they have ever been. Only in Hong Kong, where China continues to respect its agreement with the British not to abolish the enclave's democratic institutions, do Chinese citizens enjoy free and representative government.

China has already surpassed the United States on one count: it is now the world's leading producer of greenhouse gases that contribute to global climate change. China will have to be a party to any binding internationa agreement that attempts to address the crisis, and the lack of democratic institutions in the country may make this much more difficult that it otherwise would be.

Rapid Chinese economic growth over the past few decades has fueled Chinese demand for oil, of which it has few domestic sources. Consequently, China has worked hard to build friendly relationships with oil suppliers, including Sudan and Iran, making efforts by the Security Council to deal with Sudan's genocide in Darfur and Iran's nuclear weapons much more difficult.

China's developing economic power is rapidly shaking up the international system, and all Global Citizens should take note of its implications.